PHM-Exch> Human Development Trends since 1970: A Social Convergence Story

[Claudio Schuftan]

From: Ruggiero, Mrs. Ana Lucia (WDC) <ruglucia at paho.org>
crossposted from: EQUIDAD at listserv.paho.org


 *Human Development Trends since 1970: A Social Convergence Story

*

George Gray Molina is an Oxford-Princeton Global Leaders Fellow, Niehaus
Center for Globalization and Governance, Princeton University.
Mark Purser is a research consultant at the Human Development Report Office

*Human Development Reports - Research Paper - June 2010*

*United Nations Development Programme - UNDP*


Available online PDF [53p.] at: http://bit.ly/ddrovP



“…….This paper uses a unique data set of the Human Development Index to
describe long-run human development trends for 111 countries, from 1970 to
2005. The first part of the paper shows trends by region, period and index
subcomponent. We find that 110 of the 111 countries show progress in their
HDI levels over a 35-year period. HDI growth is fastest for low-HDI and
middle-HDI countries in the pre-1990 period.



The life-expectancy and education subcomponents grow faster than income. The
assessment of HDI progress is sensitive to choice of measurement. The second
part of the paper focuses on the differences between income and non-income
determinants of human development.

 First, HDI growth converges, both absolutely and conditionally, when
running HDI growth rates on initial levels of HD.



Second, we find that the income and non-income components of HDI change have
a near-zero correlation.

 Third, we look at determinants of the non-income components of the HDI. We
find that income is not a significant determinant of HDI change once we
include urbanization, fertility and female schooling.

 Fourth, we test the effects of institutions, geography and gender on HDI
growth.



We find that the most robust predictors of HDI growth are fertility and
female schooling. We check this result using years of women’s suffrage as an
instrument for changes in gender relations, and find that it is a
significant predictor of HDI progress for the whole sample…..”


http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2010/papers/<http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2010/papers/HDRP_2010_02.pdf>
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