<br>From: <b class="gmail_sendername">Ruggiero, Mrs. Ana Lucia (WDC)</b> <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:ruglucia@paho.org">ruglucia@paho.org</a>></span><br><div class="gmail_quote">crossposted from: <a href="mailto:EQUIDAD@listserv.paho.org">EQUIDAD@listserv.paho.org</a><br>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="3" color="maroon" face="Arial"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:maroon;font-weight:bold">Human Development Trends since 1970: A Social Convergence
Story<br>
<br>
</span></font></b></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in"><font size="2" color="navy" face="Arial"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy">George Gray Molina is an
Oxford-Princeton Global Leaders Fellow, Niehaus
Center for Globalization and
Governance, Princeton
 University. <br>
Mark Purser is a research consultant at the Human Development Report Office</span></font></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="2" color="navy" face="Arial"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy;font-weight:bold">Human Development Reports - Research Paper - June 2010</span></font></b></p>


<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in"><b><font size="2" color="navy" face="Arial"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy;font-weight:bold">United Nations Development Programme - UNDP</span></font></b></p>


<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in"><font size="2" color="navy" face="Arial"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy"><br>
Available online PDF [53p.] at: <a href="http://bit.ly/ddrovP" target="_blank"><font color="navy"><span style="color:navy">http://bit.ly/ddrovP</span></font></a> <br>
<br>
</span></font></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in"><font size="2" color="navy" face="Arial"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy"> </span></font></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in"><font size="2" color="navy" face="Arial"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy">“…….This
paper uses a unique data set of the Human Development Index to describe
long-run human development trends for 111 countries, from 1970 to 2005. The
first part of the paper shows trends by region, period and index subcomponent.
We find that 110 of the 111 countries show progress in their HDI levels over a
35-year period. HDI growth is fastest for low-HDI and middle-HDI countries in
the pre-1990 period. </span></font></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in"><font size="2" color="navy" face="Arial"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy"> </span></font></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in"><font size="2" color="navy" face="Arial"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy">The life-expectancy and
education subcomponents grow faster than income. The assessment of HDI progress
is sensitive to choice of measurement. The second part of the paper focuses on
the differences between income and non-income determinants of human
development. <br>
<br>
</span></font></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in"><font size="2" color="navy" face="Arial"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy">First, HDI growth
converges, both absolutely and conditionally, when running HDI growth rates on
initial levels of HD. </span></font></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in"><font size="2" color="navy" face="Arial"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy"> </span></font></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in"><font size="2" color="navy" face="Arial"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy">Second, we find that the income
and non-income components of HDI change have a near-zero correlation. <br>
<br>
</span></font></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in"><font size="2" color="navy" face="Arial"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy">Third, we look at
determinants of the non-income components of the HDI. We find that income is
not a significant determinant of HDI change once we include urbanization,
fertility and female schooling. <br>
<br>
</span></font></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in"><font size="2" color="navy" face="Arial"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy">Fourth, we test the
effects of institutions, geography and gender on HDI growth. </span></font></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in"><font size="2" color="navy" face="Arial"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy"> </span></font></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in"><font size="2" color="navy" face="Arial"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy">We find that the most
robust predictors of HDI growth are fertility and female schooling. We check this
result using years of women’s suffrage as an instrument for changes in
gender relations, and find that it is a significant predictor of HDI progress
for the whole sample…..”</span></font></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in"><font size="2" color="navy" face="Arial"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy"><br>
</span></font><font size="2" color="white" face="Arial"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:white"><font color="white"><span style="color:white"><a href="http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2010/papers/HDRP_2010_02.pdf" target="_blank">http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2010/papers/</a></span></font></span></font></p>
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