PHA-Exch> Population Aging and Economic Growth

[Claudio Schuftan]

From: Ruggiero, Mrs. Ana Lucia (WDC) <ruglucia at paho.org>
crossposted from: EQUIDAD at listserv.paho.org

 *Population Aging and Economic Growth*

* *

*David Bloom, *Clarence James Gamble Professor of Economics & Demography and
Chair, Department of Global Health & Population, Harvard School of Public
Health.

*David Canning,* Professor of Economics and International Health, Department
of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health.
*Günther Fink,* Assistant Professor of International Health Economics,
Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health.
**

*Commission on Growth and Development, 2008*

* *

Available online as PDF file [48p.] at:
http://www.growthcommission.org/storage/cgdev/documents/gcwp032web.pdf





"……Between 2000 and 2050, the share of the population aged 60 and over is
projected to increase in every country in the world; the same is true for
the 80+ population in all but one country (Mali). Worldwide, the largest
absolute increases are yet to come.

Although labor force participation rates are projected to decline from 2000
to 2040 in most countries, due mainly to changes in their age distributions,
labor force-to-population ratios will actually increase in most countries.
This is because low fertility will cause lower youth dependency that is more
than enough to offset the skewing of adults toward the older ages at which
labor force participation is lower. The increase in
labor-force-to-population ratios will be further magnified by increases in
age-specific rates of female labor force participation associated with
fertility declines. These factors suggest that economic growth will continue
apace, notwithstanding the phenomenon of population aging.



For the OECD countries, the declines projected to occur in both labor force
participation and labor-force-to-population ratios suggest modest declines
in the pace of economic growth. But even these effects can be mitigated by
behavioral responses to population aging—in the form of higher savings for
retirement, greater labor force participation, and increased immigration
from labor-surplus to labor-deficit countries.



Countries that can facilitate such changes may be able to limit the adverse
consequences of population aging. When seen through the lens of several
mitigating considerations, there is reason to think that population aging in
developed countries may have less effect than some have predicted. In
addition, policy responses related to retirement incentives, pension funding
methods, investments in health care of the elderly, and immigration can
further ameliorate the effect of population aging on economic growth….."





*Contents*

I. Introduction
II. Population Aging: Facts, Force, and Future

III. The Economic Impacts of Population Aging

IV. Summary and Discussion
References
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