PHM-Exch> Alarm Bells Continue Escalation: World Bank Warns on Climate

[Claudio Schuftan]

From:
crossposted from global-health at mailman.srv.ualberta.ca

 David Zakus, BSc MES MSc PhD
University of Alberta
*davidzakus at med.ualberta.ca* <davidzakus at med.ualberta.ca>







  106 page *Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4 Degree Celsius Warmer World Must be
Avoided *<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0019F-MIzqI9La8DnZOcrVzQW9X4g4gjGNUkTbCo7z-7N1Vr_VKmVYI7wkp36rNGGatUxN6sXoLR854uNeBoC9d2vWG4NGFwjhf2MzBARRqrvolHN-hEG_4-ozm_RG3qCicYT_P_V2nZL55U9lWmNvehbU77Nc0fZ6V0uMK01jhUasC9zv-zQDQLT2S0NV6BOXk45Bobrb24WcHAekDvLXW_QtB3gB5c5pZdHSKSd76KK6Jj3gX8Z9VZJUdwWd84SKr09_eS_6-U7Y=>(16
MB PDF) report the World Bank has just issued. The foreword of the
document, written by World Bank president, Dr. Jim Yong Kim, begins:

*It is my hope that this report shocks us into action. Even for those of us
already committed to fighting climate change, I hope it causes us to work
with much more urgency. This report spells out what the world would be like
if it warmed by 4 degrees Celsius, which is what scientists are nearly
unanimously predicting by the end of the century, without serious policy
changes.

**The 4°C scenarios are devastating: the inundation of coastal cities;
increasing risks for food production potentially leading to higher
malnutrition rates; many dry regions becoming dryer, wet regions wetter;
unprecedented heat waves in many regions, especially in the tropics;
substantially exacerbated water scarcity in many regions; increased
frequency of high-intensity tropical cyclones; and irreversible loss of
biodiversity, including coral reef systems.

*Fortuitously, Jenny Goldie then sent me the following highlights/excerpts.
I have also pasted two related news stories below: 1) *World Bank fears
devastating 4.0 degree warming*; and, 2) *Influential investors call for
action on 'serious climate danger'*.

   - In a world rapidly warming toward 4°C, the most adverse impacts on
   water availability are likely to occur in association with growing water
   demand as the world population increases. Some estimates indicate that a
   4°C warming would significantly exacerbate existing water scarcity in many
   regions...
   - Maintaining adequate food and agricultural output in the face of
   increasing population and rising levels of income will be a challenge
   irrespective of human-induced climate change.
   - The projected impacts on water availability, ecosystems, agriculture,
   and human health could lead to large-scale displacement of populations and
   have adverse consequences for human security and economic and trade systems.
   - ...a large shock to agricultural production due to extreme
   temperatures across many regions, along with substantial pressure on water
   resources and changes in the hydrological cycle, would likely impact both
   human health and livelihoods. This could, in turn, cascade into effects on
   economic development by reducing a population´s work capacity, which would
   then hinder growth in GDP.
   - With pressures increasing as warming progresses toward 4°C and
   combining with nonclimate-related social, economic, and population
   stresses, the risk of crossing critical social system thresholds will grow.
   At such thresholds existing institutions that would have supported
   adaptation actions would likely become much less effective or even collapse.


*World Bank fears devastating 4.0 degree warming*
See: *http://www.mysinchew.com/node/79931*<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0019F-MIzqI9LZCMQlMPnyxwLE1e3UY4dxSJin6dRXMELoGmGipxh1QWhnGvThy6bebrMaYKavbAi-GppEnJdV5RyIegk8i5a9oRNwo4a19LU_G8eZAx6W8_qvjkVFCHjMv>
* *
*by Shaun Tandon*

WASHINGTON, Nov 18, 2012 (AFP) - The World Bank warned Sunday that global
temperatures could rise by four degrees this century without immediate
action, with potentially devastating consequences for coastal cities and
the poor.

Issuing a call for action, the World Bank tied the future wealth of the
planet -- and especially developing regions -- to immediate efforts to cut
greenhouse gas emissions from sources such as energy production.

"The time is very, very short. The world has to tackle the problem of
climate change more aggressively," World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said
on a conference call as he launched a report conducted for the global
lender.

"We will never end poverty if we don't tackle climate change. It is one of
the single biggest challenges to social justice today."

The study said the planet could warm 4.0 degrees Celsius (7.2 Fahrenheit)
above pre-industrial levels as early as the 2060s if governments' promises
to fight climate change are not met.

Even if nations fulfill current pledges, the study gave a 20 percent
likelihood of a four-degree rise by 2100 and said that a three-degree rise
appeared likely. UN-led climate negotiations have vowed to limit the rise
of temperatures to no more than two degrees.

"A four-degree warmer world can and must be avoided. We need to hold
warming below two degrees," Kim said. "Lack of ambitious action on climate
change threatens to put prosperity out of reach of millions and roll back
decades of development."

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in a statement that the study showed
the need to hold nations to their commitment, made last year in Durban,
South Africa, to put in place a legally binding new climate agreement by
2015.

The more than 190 nations in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
start their latest annual talks on November 26 in Qatar.

Global temperatures have already risen about 0.8 degrees Celsius. The
planet has charted a slew of record-breaking temperatures over the past
decade and experienced frequent disasters some experts blame on climate
change, most recently superstorm Sandy, which ravaged Haiti and the US East
Coast.

The report said that, if temperatures rise by four degrees, regions will
feel different effects -- recent heatwaves in Russia could become an annual
norm and July in the Mediterranean could be nine degrees higher than the
area's warmest level now.

Under that scenario, the acidity of the oceans could rise at a rate
unprecedented in world history, threatening coral reefs that protect
shorelines and provide a habitat for fish species.

Rising sea levels could inundate coastal areas with the most vulnerable
cities found in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Madagascar, Mexico,
Mozambique, the Philippines, Venezuela and Vietnam, the study said.

"Many small islands may not be able to sustain the communities at all.
There would be irreversible loss of biodiversity," Kim said.

The study found that the most alarming impact may be on food production,
with the world already expected to struggle to meet demand for a growing
and increasingly wealthy population that is eating more meat.

Low-lying areas such as Bangladesh, Egypt, Vietnam and parts of Africa's
coast could see major blows to food production, with drought severely
hindering agriculture elsewhere, the study said.
Flooding can also contaminate drinking water, increasing illnesses such as
diarrhea.

The dire warnings were designed to encourage bolder action, but the report
did not focus on potential steps.

Identifying one area, Kim called for less reliance on coal, which is the
dirtiest major form of energy but is politically sensitive in the United
States and China due to industry jobs.

Kim said that the World Bank was determined to support renewable energy in
its lending, saying: "We do everything we can not to invest in coal --
everything we possibly can."

The fight against climate change has faced political obstacles in a number
of nations including the United States, where many conservative lawmakers
have called action too costly and cast doubt on the science.

Kim, a physician and former president of Dartmouth College who was tapped
for the World Bank by US President Barack Obama, said that 97 percent of
scientists agreed that human activity was causing climate change.

"As someone who has lived in the world of science for a long time, 97
percent is unheard-of consensus," he said.

The report was carried out by German-based Climate Analytics and the
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The World Bank said it did
not consider the study a substitute for next UN-backed scientific
assessment on climate change expected in 2014.


*  *
*Influential investors call for action on 'serious climate danger'*
*A coalition of global investors said extreme weather was increasing
investment risks and could disrupt economies*

See: *http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/nov/20/global-investors-call-for-action?CMP=twt_fd
*<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0019F-MIzqI9LYO9fNP0iVz3SN1On3adCnziFjXsumePONdOajOG6DTF4EIwsr2UzphSFUEZ_SAdq64RMB2dsncjC7S13nXbs7T4GaoD_SfvzKSJdTbS72hhnu_c-1QLiVP2CO8VIDRnziyh_MO0KbVkmiO3RPV2mY39GejY6Dx4fOkMabLjUw3SHfnRlJvUxdQCF77jBoodUOq6rKZxutWd7fwSsz-EdaS>
*  *
* *
A coalition of the world's largest investors called on governments on
Tuesday to ramp up action on climate change and boost clean-energy
investment or risk trillions of dollars in investments and disruption to
economies.

*In an open letter,*<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0019F-MIzqI9LbC1h63hCrKBMRfnKYSdUwo8zPEExNi5CfzRDV-A7IY_YI55C7HkVOBG94PSVqSc5Pv-ScnFaRjPNw0y0q4Dr1dI_a5qD-MFiIWmsa2iGIruCEBH9WPl_KKcZpuOIDUlfvgmPffya5yV6-xk8OF2S11_McMC5egy4nEZx3guYVHHQ==>the
alliance of institutional investors, responsible for managing $22.5
trillion in assets, said rapidly growing greenhouse gas emissions and more
extreme weather were increasing investment risks globally.

The group called for dialogue between investors and governments to overhaul
climate and energy policies.

The call comes less than a week before major UN climate talks in Doha,
Qatar. Almost 200 nations will meet in Doha from 26 November to 7 December
to try to extend the Kyoto protocol, the existing plan for curbing
greenhouse gas emissions by developed nations that runs to the end of 2012.

On Monday, the World Bank said current climate policies meant the world was
heading for a warming of up to 4C by 2100. That will trigger deadly heat
waves and droughts, cut food stocks and drive up sea levels.

"Current policies are insufficient to avert serious and dangerous impacts
from climate change," said the group of investors from the United States,
Europe, Asia and Australia.

The investments and retirement savings of millions of people were being
jeopardised because governments were delaying tougher emissions cuts or
more generous support for greener energy.
The group said the right policies would prompt institutional investors to
significantly increase investments in cleaner energy and energy efficiency,
citing existing policies that have unleashed billions of dollars of
renewable energy investment in China, the United States and Europe.

But many economies were still going to be heavily reliant on polluting
fossil fuels such as coal, and policies needed to be implemented to speed
up the shift to cleaner energy, the investors said.

They issued seven action points, including slashing fossil fuel subsidies
and boosting carbon markets, for governments to focus on and said the
re-election of Barack Obama in the United States and the leadership change
in China were an opportunity to push for tougher climate talks.
"Strong carbon-reducing government policies are an urgent imperative," said
Chris Davis, director of investor programs at Ceres, a US-based coalition
of investors and green groups.

"Hurricane Sandy, which caused more than $50bn in economic losses, is
typical of what we can expect if no action is taken and warming trends
continue," said Davis, who also works for the Investor Network on Climate
Risk, which groups 100 institutional investors with assets of more than
$11tr.
*  *







  Joseph J. Bish
Population Media Center
Shelburne, Vermont 05482-0547
U.S.A.




  **<http://ui.constantcontact.com/sa/fwtf.jsp?llr=aajwdndab&m=1103172936704&ea=davidzakus%40med.ualberta.ca&a=1111631581478>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://phm.phmovement.org/pipermail/phm-exchange-phmovement.org/attachments/20121124/cb22cfba/attachment.html>