PHM-Exch> The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2012 (WESP) - UN DESA report

[Claudio Schuftan]

From: Ruggiero, Mrs. Ana Lucia (WDC) <ruglucia at paho.org>
crossposted from: EQUIDAD at listserv.paho.org


** ** ** **

*The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2012 (WESP)

*

*UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)– New York, January 17
2012

*

            Available online at: http://bit.ly/wJQQXQ <http://t.co/1bifQOkW>

****

 “…..Countries throughout the world will experience an economic slowdown
this year as the sovereign debt crisis in **Europe** continues to unfold,
according to a United Nations report launched today that also warns that
governments must urgently address high unemployment rates, particularly
among youth. ****

** **

The report gives a detailed picture on seven geographical regions and
forecasts that growth rates for the next two years will slow down in most
of them, with the exception of the African continent, which will continue
to enjoy growth due to stable commodity prices and foreign investment.****

** **

The report points to the European sovereign debt crisis that erupted in ****
Greece**** last May as a major shock to the global economy, whose multiple
negative effects will continue to reverberate around the world.****

** **

“Failure of policymakers, especially those in Europe and the United States,
to address the jobs crisis and prevent sovereign debt distress and
financial sector fragility from escalating poses the most acute risk for
the global economy in the outlook for 2012-2013,” the report states. ****

** **

The report estimates that growth in the European Union (EU) is expected to
be only 0.7 per cent in 2012, substantially lower than the 1.6 per cent
growth registered last year. In addition, unemployment throughout the
continent will remain near 10 per cent in the euro area, having changed
very little since September 2009. ****

** **

**Africa** is expected to continue to grow, defying the global trend. The
continent is forecast to see an increase in its overall growth from 2.7 per
cent in 2011 to 5 per cent in 2012 and 5.1 per cent in 2013. This growth
will mainly be driven by relatively strong commodity prices, solid external
capital inflows and continued demand and investment from **Asia**.****

** **

However, growth will vary greatly among countries in the continent due to
military conflicts, corruption, lack of infrastructure and severe drought
in certain areas. The report also warns that unemployment and poverty
remain major problems and sources of instability, which have already led to
political unrest in **North Africa**. ****

** **

**South Africa** is expected to have the strongest economic growth in 2012,
supported by growing demand from **Asia**, continued fiscal stimulus
measures and an increase in consumption driven by rising wages.****

** **

The economic picture in the Arab World will continue to be subject of high
uncertainty due to the political transition and civil protests brought by
the Arab Spring. Regional growth is forecast to decline from 6.6 per cent
to 3.7 per cent as violent clashes hampered economic activity in several
Arab countries. Social unrest also affected trade and tourism revenues,
particularly in ****Lebanon****.****

However, the report states that generous social spending measures
implemented in 2011 by Arab governments such as ****Saudi Arabia**** as a
way to alleviate popular protests helped boost economic growth and the
impact of these measures will continue to be felt throughout 2012. ****

** **

As with Europe and **Africa**, unemployment remains a key problem in the
region. Despite extremely low female participation rates, unemployment
rates in the region are among the highest in the world, especially among
the educated youth, and the report warns that leaving unemployment
unaddressed represents a major risk to stability in the region.****

** **

In **East Asia** growth is projected to decline to 6.9 per cent in both
2012 and 2013. ****China****, the biggest economy in the region, is also
expected to slow down from 9.3 per cent to 8.7 per cent growth in 2012. A
major deceleration from ****China****, however, would represent a more
pronounced slowdown for the rest of the region.****

** **

The South Asian and Latin American and Caribbean regions remain
particularly susceptible to the future of developed economies as both the
EU and the ****US**** are key export markets as well as sources of tourism
revenue.****

** **

For Latin America, a slowdown in **China** would also adversely affect the
region as it is a major buyer of its commodities and a key investor in **South
America**…..”

****

“………the report discusses several policy directions which could avoid a
double-dip recession, including: optimal design of fiscal policies to
stimulate more direct job creation and investment in infrastructure, energy
efficiency and sustainable energy supply, and food security; stronger
financial safety nets; better coordination between fiscal and monetary
policies; and the provision of sufficient support to developing countries
in addressing the fallout from the crisis and the coordination of policy
measures at the international level…..”****

** **

** **

Also available:

****

*Executive Summary available in Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Russian,
Spanish*

* *

*Global press releases: Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Russian, Spanish*

* *

*Policy Brief 36: Can a protracted slowdown be avoided?

*
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://phm.phmovement.org/pipermail/phm-exchange-phmovement.org/attachments/20120117/c2c5623e/attachment.html>