PHM-Exch> The Cassandra Dilemma: do dooms scenarios help?

[Claudio Schuftan]

>From Dr David Zakus ZakusAdmin at med.ualberta.ca



[How applicable to human rights (HR) this is].

Claudio



*The Cassandra Dilemma*  (Kurt Dahl)  [excerpts]

 In Greek Mythology, Cassandra was the daughter of King Priam and Queen
Hecuba of Troy. Her beauty was so extraordinary that Apollo fell in love
with her, and as a gift to show his devotion, he granted her the ability to
know the future. But when she refused his love, he then cursed her by
making it so that no one would ever believe her predictions. Cassandra had
perfect knowledge of the future (she even warned the Trojans about the
Trojan horse) and yet nobody would ever believe her - a frustrating curse
in the extreme.



Today, this same extreme frustration is shared by many people who have
extensively read about and carefully studied our unfolding sustainability
(and HR) crisis. These modern day Cassandras clearly understand that
–unabated- the current trends in climate disruption, peak oil, water
depletion, and soil degradation, combined with a rapidly increasing human
population (and HR violations), will soon result in a disaster of
unimaginable proportions.



These frustrated Cassandras have studied the facts, have integrated all of
the information, and have done the math. The conclusion is clear - if we
don't act soon, within a few decades we will experience a violent, chaotic,
and massive human catastrophy.



Those of us who have spent the many, many hours of reading, studying and
discussing this problem have virtually all come to the same conclusion. Yet
in our attempts to warn the general public, we all experience the same
response. The less informed public simply does not believe us. Often they
will argue that we must be wrong - even though they are often fundamentally
unaware of the facts.



This "Cassandra Dilemma" that we face is itself a hotly debated and
discussed topic within the community of sustainability (and HR) activists.
"Why won't they listen to us? Why can't we get them to read even the most
basic information about the issue? How can we get them wake up to the
danger?"



Unfortunately, a crisis that unfolds in slow motion is easy to ignore. As
each day comes and goes these disruptions all seem to be no worse than the
day before. The vast majority of people never notice the gradual, yet
inexorable deterioration of our planet's life support system. For most,
their short term problems overwhelm any desire to consider the long term
issues.



Perhaps there are some people that are simply unable to grasp any long-term
implications.  And certainly most people are already fully engaged in their
own day-to-day problems and have little time or energy left over to think
about a problem that will not impact them for several decades into the
future. Their approach is to say: "I don't care. I've already got enough
stuff to worry about."



For them, apathy, denial, and false hope obscure the reality of the danger
ahead. The essential question then becomes: How can their apathy, denial,
and false hope ever be overcome? The Cassandras among us have completely
failed so far.



I think I know why.



I think civilization suffers from an inability to conceptualize the
future….a missing piece of this Cassandra Dilemma.



Assume for a moment that we can see –literally- into the future. Let’s go
forward several decades to a time during the height of the predicted
collapse. Food is scarce, people are desperate, chaos and extreme violence
are rampant, people are killing other people…..we videotape what we see.



We then show these videos to everyone on earth, and explain that this is
their -or their children's- future if we fail to act soon. So, after
viewing these horrifying images, what lies ahead becomes completely
conceptualized to everyone. Would that have an impact on the general
public? Would that jolt people out of their apathy and denial? I think so!
Impossible to deny the images.



Otherwise, take television soap operas. They have taken the
entertainment-education theories and created soap operas that portray an
improved lifestyle through educating women and providing them with birth
choices. These television shows clearly conceptualize a better future if
certain behaviors are adopted. And they work.



But instead, we Cassandras continue putting out scholarly essays, books,
and videos. We attempt to convince through our solid logic and our depth of
information. We debate the details of peak oil (, of HR) and population
projections. We argue about which solution is best, while at the same time
expressing that it doesn't really matter, because no one will do it anyway.



I assert that what we Cassandras are doing is doing the same thing
over-and-over again, and then expecting a different result.



So now, how can we conceptualize this future for the general public? How
can we help them to remove the fog of apathy, denial, and false hope, and
then form a clear impression of the danger ahead?



I think I have an answer. For the last eighteen months I've been working on
this problem, and I believe I've come up with a creative and unique
solution.

The first part: I've written a book -well, half a book- called "The Corn
Guild". This is a work of fiction, a fast-paced thriller intended for the
general public. It covers a period from 2028 to 2036, a period that
chronicles the beginning of collapse -a time when the general public is
just beginning to be concerned and scared- to the actual collapse event in
the year 2036. And while it is primarily intended to be an accessible,
easy, read, it also educates the reader along the way.



However, the book is the small part of this effort. The big part - the
unique and creative part - is called "The Faminarchy Project". The
Faminarchy project is a website
(www.faminarchy.com<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=aajwdndab&et=1108958026088&s=1746&e=001JUJVur1bBR-UXaD0RXEvNm9SrNoM8i9w07SyOh17Jo53CjSCoK4hCaDELxMjz44THfSii2I5-MF5xGY9i_r5W3RM_UmMbrGHUaVkuiRmnMh5wf77QCufsQ==>)
where The Corn Guild book can be read for free in its entirety. The
story
of "The Corn Guild" ends just as the collapse event begins in 2036. This is
the 'set-up'.



So then, at the Faminarchy website, I am asking those concerned about
sustainability, or even those who are just interested in writing a short
story, to contribute a short story about what will happen during this
collapse event in 2036; there are several examples of possible plot lines
provided (you can create one on HR violations of unimaginable proportions).
Like any fiction, these stories will have specific characters, in a
specific locale, doing specific things and are not another opportunity for
a generalized scholarly essay.



These 'famine stories' will then all be published on the website as they
come in. I encourage these writers to use their imaginations to create
horrifying and extreme stories of chaos and violence - nothing very
hopeful. I'm betting that this exercise in group creativity will yield many
extraordinary and frightening efforts.



This aggregation of famine stories will then force those who read them, and
especially those who write them, to experience a clear conceptualization of
our shared future. This is perhaps the best we can do.



I am reaching beyond the usual sustainability suspects by contacting as
many university creative writing programs as I can. As we all know, it is
essential that we find a way to get younger generations involved. And I
will make every effort that I can to publicize the website through Facebook
and Twitter in order to get the widest possible attention and readership. I
believe there is a chance that this could get substantial traction - it is
a good story.



If you believe this to be a valuable effort, please forward this essay to
everyone you know. And please, go to
www.faminarchy.com<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=aajwdndab&et=1108958026088&s=1746&e=001JUJVur1bBR-UXaD0RXEvNm9SrNoM8i9w07SyOh17Jo53CjSCoK4hCaDELxMjz44THfSii2I5-MF5xGY9i_r5W3RM_UmMbrGHUaVkuiRmnMh5wf77QCufsQ==>for
further information. You can read "The Corn Guild" there. I'm sure you
will find it to be an informative and intriguing read, a non-stop
page-turner! Then, put on your frustrated-fiction-writer cap (you know you
have one!) and create your very own short story masterpiece. You can do
this.



It is essential that we find a way to increase awareness of the real danger
ahead. Only then can steps be taken to turn us away from the abyss.
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