PHA-Exchange> GEN: U.N. report predicts older people to triple by 2050

[Claudio]

From: "Vern Weitzel" <vern at coombs.anu.edu.au>
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1238922420070313
>
> U.N. report predicts older people to triple by 2050
> Tue Mar 13, 2007 8:21AM EDT
>
> By Michelle Nichols
>
> UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - The number of people 60 years of age and older 
> may nearly triple to 2 billion by 2050, accounting for nearly a quarter of 
> the expected 9.2 billion global population, a U.N. report warned on 
> Tuesday.
>
> The 2006 revision of "World Population Prospects" by the U.N. Department 
> of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division predicts the global 
> population will swell by 2.5 billion from the current 6.7 billion during 
> the next 43 years.
>
> "While the population at the global level is on track to surpass 9 billion 
> by 2050 and hence continues to increase, that of the more developed 
> regions is hardly changing and will age very markedly," the report 
> predicted.
>
> Most of the population growth and youth in the world is expected to come 
> from poorer nations, the report said.
>
> "Virtually all population growth is occurring in the less developed 
> regions and especially in the group of 50 least developed countries, many 
> of which still have relatively youthful populations which are expected to 
> age only moderately over the foreseeable future," it said. "Among the rest 
> of the developing countries, rapid population aging is forecast."
>
> A combination of people living longer and having fewer children would 
> nearly double the number of people over 60 years of age from the current 
> 245 million to 406 million in 2050.
>
> The report said the prevailing trend of people not having enough babies to 
> replace people dying would continue in the developed countries, while 
> fertility in the least developed nations would decline but still remain 
> higher than the rest of the world.  Continued...
>
> "Because of its low and declining population growth, the population of the 
> developed countries as a whole is expected to remain virtually unchanged 
> between 2007 and 2050, at about 1.2 billion," the report found.
>
> "In contrast the population of the 50 least developed countries will 
> likely more than double, passing from 0.8 billion in 2007 to 1.7 billion 
> in 2050," it said. "Growth in the rest of the developing world is also 
> projected to be robust though less rapid, with its population rising from 
> 4.6 billion to 6.2 billion."
>
> Despite immigration barriers, international migration from poor to rich 
> nations is expected to make up for the shortage in the labor force in the 
> developing world, the report said.
>
> Still, the populations in 46 countries, including Germany, Italy, Japan, 
> South Korea, most of the former Soviet Union states and several small 
> island states are expected to be lower in 2050 than what they are now.
>
> But the populations of Afghanistan, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of 
> Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Niger, East Timor and Uganda are forecast 
> to triple in the next four decades, the report showed.
>
> The report found that India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of 
> Congo, Ethiopia, the United States, Bangladesh and China are forecast to 
> account for half the world's projected 2.5 billion population increase by 
> 2050.
>