PHA-Exchange> ] UN Report: The World Population in 2300

[Claudio]

From: Ruggiero, Mrs. Ana Lucia (WDC) 
 EQUIDAD at LISTSERV.PAHO.ORG 


The World Population in 2300 



Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat

December, 2003



Report available online at: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/Long_range_report.pdf 



Website: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/longrange2.htm 



"...The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
has prepared for the first time a set of population projections to the year 2300 for each country of the world. 
All projection scenarios share the same assumptions about the steady decline of mortality after 
2050 and the consequent increase of life expectancy. In addition, in all scenarios, international migration

is assumed to be zero after 2050. 



In terms of fertility, the medium scenario assumes that the total fertility of each country will reach

below replacement levels and remain at those levels for about 100 years, after which it will return to

replacement level and remain there until 2300. In the high scenario total fertility after 2050 is assumed to

be a quarter of a child higher than in the medium scenario and to remain constant at 2.35 children per

woman when the medium scenario stabilizes at replacement level. Similarly, in the low scenario total

fertility is assumed to be 0.25 of a child lower than in the medium scenario and to remain constant at 1.85

children per woman when the medium scenario settles at replacement level. 



Some of the main findings yielded by a comparison of these scenarios are summarized below:



1. According to the medium scenario, world population rises from 6.1 billion persons in 2000 to a

maximum of 9.2 billion persons in 2075 and declines thereafter to reach 8.3 billion in 2175. The

return to replacement level fertility coupled with increasing longevity in the medium scenario

produces a steadily increasing population after 2175 that reaches 9 billion by 2300. If the effects of

increasing longevity are counterbalanced by fertility, population size remains constant at 8.3 billion

from 2175 to 2300 as in the zero-growth scenario 



2. Future population size is highly sensitive to small but sustained deviations of fertility from

replacement level. Thus, the low scenario results in a declining population that reaches 2.3 billion in

2300 and the high scenario leads to a growing population that rises to 36.4 billion by 2300 (table 1).


3. In the medium scenario, most of the expected population increase between 2000 and 2300 occurs in

the less developed regions, whose population rises form 4.9 billion in 2000 to 7.7 billion in 2300.

Although the population of more developed regions also increases, the change is considerably less

(from 1.2 billion in 2000 to 1.3 billion in 2300).



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