PHA-Exchange> UN lowers world population projection, AIDS is one of 2 major causes

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From: "jvnet" <jvnet at netnam.vn>

UN POPULATION DIVISION LOWERS WORLD POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR 2050 BY 400
MILLIONS, DROP DUE TO DEATHS FROM AIDS, LOW BIRTHRATE

  http://www.kaisernetwork.org/daily_reports/rep_index.cfm?DR_ID=16270

  The United Nations Population Division on Wednesday lowered its estimated
world population projections for 2050 by 400 million, largely due to the
effects of the HIV/AIDS pandemic and "lower than expected" birthrates, the
AP/Philadelphia Inquirer reports.  The "World Population Prospects:  The
2002 Revision" report attributes about half of the decrease to a rising
number of deaths due to AIDS-related complications and the other half to the
fact that three out of four countries in less-developed regions will have
fertility rates below replacement levels by 2050 (Lederer, AP/Philadelphia
Inquirer, 2/27).  The world population is still expected to increase by 2.6
billion over the next 47 years, from 6.3 billion today to 8.9 billion in
2050 (United Nations release, 2/26).  Eight countries -- India, Pakistan,
Nigeria, the United States, China, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and the Democratic
Republic of Congo -- will account for 50% of the world's population
increase, the Financial Times reports (Wolf, Financial Times, 2/27).
"However, the realization of these projections is contingent on ensuring
that couples have access to family planning and that efforts to arrest the
current spread of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are successful in reducing growth
momentum," the report states (Xinhua News, 2/26).

FERTILITY

The "key to the change" was a "surprise" drop in birth rates of the most
populous developing countries, Reuters/New York Times reports.  Joseph
Chamie, director of the U.N. Population Division, said that the most
important factor in declining fertility rates is that "men and women want
smaller families, and now they have the means to do so" (Reuters/New York
Times, 2/27).  The report says that fertility levels in most developing
countries will fall below 2.1 children per woman, the "level needed to
ensure long term replacement of the population" (United Nations release,
2/26).  Already, fertility rates in developing countries have fallen from
six children per woman in 1950 to three children today.  The populations of
33 countries -- including Japan, Italy, Bulgaria, Russia and Ukraine -- are
expected to be smaller in 2050 than they are today (Financial Times, 2/27).
According to the report, if fertility in all countries were to remain at
current levels, the world population would "more than double" to 12.8
billion by 2050 (AP/Philadelphia Inquirer, 2/27).

HIV/AIDS IMPACT

HIV/AIDS will have a "serious and prolonged effect" on the populations of
the most-affected countries, where the number of HIV/AIDS cases will still
be "substantial" in 2050, although models predict a decline in HIV
prevalence levels after 2010 (United Nations release, 2/26).  The number of
AIDS-related deaths in the 53 worst-affected nations is estimated to reach
278 million by 2050 (Agence France-Presse, 2/26).  Seven of the most
affected countries -- Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland,
Zambia and Zimbabwe -- are located in Southern Africa, where HIV prevalence
is greater than 20%, the Wall Street Journal reports.  According to the
estimates, the population of these countries in 12 years will be 19% lower
than it would have been without AIDS.  Chamie said that in some countries,
including India, China, Russia and Nigeria, "even a small difference [in HIV
prevalence] has a big effect on the number of excess deaths," compared with
previous estimates.  He said, "It's a catastrophe.  We have to bring down
mortality in these countries" (Naik, Wall Street Journal, 2/27). Chamie
added, "The long-term impact of the epidemic remains dire.  HIV/AIDS is a
disease of mass destruction and we do not see a vaccine coming soon" (BBC
News, 2/26).